A Short History of Nearly Everything

by

Bill Bryson

A Short History of Nearly Everything: Chapter 27 Summary & Analysis

Summary
Analysis
In 1815, the largest volcanic explosion in 10,000 years takes place when an Indonesian mountain named Tambora explodes with the force of 60,000 atom bombs. The ash it expels diffuses worldwide, cooling the atmosphere slightly. Earth’s climate is cooler in the 19th century than it is now, so it's hard for scientists of the time to imagine that their climate is much warmer than what Earth has witnessed in its past. In the 1700s, James Hutton hypothesizes that Earth might have had glaciers covering it in the past—but since Hutton is such an unclear writer, most of his ideas are overlooked by the scientific community.
Bryson revisits early geologist James Hutton in order to show once again that Hutton’s profound insights—this time, about glaciers—might have triggered significant advances in geology had his writing not been so obtuse. Through this example, Bryson reiterates that poor expression hinders scientific progress. Bryson also shows how recent human knowledge of glaciers is, once again indicating that scientific knowledge in this area is still quite limited.
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Although local folk knowledge already holds that unusual rock formations were transported from distant locations by glaciers, scientists are still slow to accept this hypothesis. A botanist named Karl Schimpher coins the term “ice age” in 1837, though Swiss naturalist Loius Agassiz formalizes the theory. Unfortunately, Agassiz’s ideas are poorly-received. They only start to catch on after scientists make an expedition to Greenland for the first time and learn that parts of the world are covered in ice sheets. Curiously, James Croll—a university janitor who taught himself science from books in the university library—writes the most famous paper on the topic in 1864. He speculates that changes in Earth’s orbit and its ice ages are related.
Bryson alludes, again, to how young the field is by showing that research on Earth’s historical ice ages only gets going in the mid-19th century, indicating that it still has far to go. Bryson emphasizes James Croll’s status as an amateur scientist to show that many profound scientific ideas come from non-professionals, which is why Bryson thinks scientific writing should strive to engage the wider populace (instead of being esoteric and obtuse) as that will only drive scientific progress forward.
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Croll calculates that Earth’s most recent ice age was 80,000 years ago, but geological evidence suggests a more recent ice age since then. In 1900, a Serbian mechanical engineer named Milutin Milankovitch realizes that Croll forgot to factor a variable into his calculations: namely, Earth wobbling on its axis. It takes Milankovitch years to do the calculations, but he eventually publishes a book in 1930, correctly arguing that Earth’s wobbling on its axis accounts for its ice ages. Then, a meteorologist named Wladimir Köppen realizes that when summers are too cool to melt ice quickly, sunlight is bounced back by ice’s reflective sheen, exacerbating the cooling effect.
Bryson emphasizes, through his discussion of Croll, Milankovitch, and Köppen, that the scientific endeavor takes a long time, and is often multi-generational, as scientists refine and build on the work that came before them until all anomalies are accounted for. Croll, Milankovitch, and Köppen’s research findings also indicate, as before, how precarious life on Earth is—it takes only the slightest change to trigger substantive changes in Earth’s climate. 
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In the 1970s, scientists calculate that if North America, Eurasia, and Greenland were just 300 miles north of where they are, they’d experience permanent ice ages, meaning that “we’re very lucky.” Bryson says that technically, we’re actually in an ice age right now. 20,000 years ago, 30 percent of Earth’s land surface was covered with ice. Now, 10 percent still is. Earth’s longer history, however, shows that the planet is usually hotter and doesn’t have permanent ice at all. In geological terms, the current ice age started 40 million years ago. Scientists think that the formation of the Himalayas is responsible, as this altered wind patterns. Consequently, Africa dried up, causing apes to climb down from trees and start living on the ground.  
Bryson emphasizes once again how lucky humans are that things aren’t even the slightest bit different—even with a minor amount of continental drift, over half the world’s land surface would be inhospitable to humans. At the same time, human existence also depends upon ice ages—much like it depends upon extinctions—since the current ice age is a crucial factor in the evolution of humans. Once again, then, Bryson emphasizes how much our existence is a matter of sheer chance or the whims of the planet. 
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Earlier ice ages tended to be more dramatic: a “super ice age” happened about 2.2 billion years ago that might have caused the entire surface of the planet to freeze solid. Icy planets tend to stay frozen over, and it would have been that way for Earth had volcanic activity not disrupted the ice age—and as a result, triggered the Cambrian explosion. The thawing triggers violent weather that might be the closest Earth has come to wiping out life altogether. Ice cores from Greenland also show that Earth’s historical climate is much more volatile than scientists think, though they have no idea why. Bryson says that there’s “no reason to suppose that this stretch of climatic stability should last much longer.”
Bryson continues stressing how much our existence depends upon luck: without a molten core to disrupt the “super ice age,” Earth would have stayed permanently frozen over, and human life would likely never have evolved. As before, however, Bryson shows how this is a double-edged sword, since Earth’s molten core also puts humans in peril on a daily basis. Once again, he wants the reader not to take the relative tranquility of Earth’s recent climate for granted. Bryson also indicates that scientific knowledge about Earth’s historical climate is highly limited. 
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Scientists even predict that, paradoxically, global warming might trigger more cloud cover, which would cause snowfall to linger and trigger another deep freeze—though it’s hard to do more than speculate. Bryson says “much is simply beyond us.” On the other hand, if humans end up melting ice through climate change, sea levels would rise by 200 feet, flooding every coastal city in the world. Curiously, we don’t know which way the future will go. Bryson concludes that “Only one thing is certain: we live on a knife edge.” 
The fact that scientists think global warming might lead either to a dramatically warmer climate or a dramatically cooler one shows how little scientists know about predicting Earth’s climate, meaning that there is—as always—a lot of scientific work ahead. The fact that things could go either way also shows how perilous human existence is: in both outcomes, life would be dramatically affected.
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