Why Nations Fail

by

Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson

Historical contingency is the concept that history could have been otherwise. Events aren’t predetermined, but rather result from a combination of earlier events, circumstances, human decisions, and chance.

Historical Contingency Quotes in Why Nations Fail

The Why Nations Fail quotes below are all either spoken by Historical Contingency or refer to Historical Contingency. For each quote, you can also see the other terms and themes related to it (each theme is indicated by its own dot and icon, like this one:
Global Inequality and Economic Growth Theme Icon
).
Chapter 11 Quotes

The British example, an illustration of the virtuous circle of inclusive institutions, provides an example of a “gradual virtuous circle.” The political changes were unmistakably toward more inclusive political institutions and were the result of demands from empowered masses. But they were also gradual. Every decade another step, sometimes smaller, sometimes larger, was taken toward democracy. There was conflict over each step, and the outcome of each was contingent. But the virtuous circle created forces that reduced the stakes involved in clinging to power. […] There is great virtue in this sort of gradual change. It is less threatening to the elite than the wholesale overthrow of the system. Each step is small, and it makes sense to give in to a small demand rather than create a major showdown.

Related Characters: Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson (speaker)
Page Number: 317
Explanation and Analysis:
Chapter 14 Quotes

The changes in economic institutions in China were radical. China broke the mold, even if it did not transform its political institutions. As in Botswana and the U.S. South, the crucial changes came during a critical juncture—in the case of China, following Mao’s death. They were also contingent, in fact highly contingent, as there was nothing inevitable about the Gang of Four losing the power struggle; and if they had not, China would not have experienced the sustained economic growth it has seen in the last thirty years. But the devastation and human suffering that the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution caused generated sufficient demand for change that Deng Xiaoping and his allies were able to win the political fight.

Related Characters: Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson (speaker), Mao Zedong , Deng Xiaoping
Page Number: 426
Explanation and Analysis:
Chapter 15 Quotes

There is much uncertainty. Cuba, for example, might transition toward inclusive institutions and experience a major economic transformation, or it may linger on under extractive political and economic institutions. The same is true of North Korea and Burma (Myanmar) in Asia. Thus, while our theory provides the tools for thinking about how institutions change and the consequences of such changes, the nature of this change—the role of small differences and contingency—makes more precise predictions difficult.

Related Characters: Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson (speaker)
Page Number: 436
Explanation and Analysis:
Get the entire Why Nations Fail LitChart as a printable PDF.
Why Nations Fail PDF

Historical Contingency Term Timeline in Why Nations Fail

The timeline below shows where the term Historical Contingency appears in Why Nations Fail. The colored dots and icons indicate which themes are associated with that appearance.
Chapter 4: Small Differences and Critical Junctures: The Weight of History
History and Institutional Change Theme Icon
Diversity, Pluralism, and Empowerment Theme Icon
In the section “The Contingent Path of History,” Acemoglu and Robinson argue that, while existing institutions shape the way a... (full context)
Global Inequality and Economic Growth Theme Icon
History and Institutional Change Theme Icon
Cycles of Wealth and Poverty Theme Icon
...generally kept running institutions the same way as the Europeans. But small institutional differences and contingent historical events have led to a few exceptions. (full context)
Chapter 7: The Turning Point
History and Institutional Change Theme Icon
...become pluralistic. However, this outcome was never inevitable in England—rather, it was part of “the contingent path of history.” (full context)
Chapter 10: The Diffusion of Prosperity
Global Inequality and Economic Growth Theme Icon
History and Institutional Change Theme Icon
Diversity, Pluralism, and Empowerment Theme Icon
The French Revolution occurred because of several historically contingent factors. In the late 1600s, Louis XIV greatly consolidated power and built certain government controlled,... (full context)
Chapter 15: Understanding Prosperity and Poverty
History and Institutional Change Theme Icon
...institutions become different in the first place due to “institutional drift”—or a long series of contingent, unpredictable changes that give certain groups more institutional power than others. Thus, institutions diverge slowly... (full context)
History and Institutional Change Theme Icon
...the Inca could have colonized the world instead. Europeans only did so because of many contingent events, like the Black Death and the rise of feudalism. (full context)
History and Institutional Change Theme Icon
Acemoglu and Robinson admit that, because their theory depends on historical contingency and small institutional differences, it can’t predict the future. But no theory can: history is... (full context)
Global Inequality and Economic Growth Theme Icon
History and Institutional Change Theme Icon
Cycles of Wealth and Poverty Theme Icon
...nations like China will probably “run out of steam.” But much of the future is contingent. For example, Cuba, North Korea, and Myanmar could become more inclusive, or they could stay... (full context)