How Democracies Die

by

Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt

How Democracies Die: Chapter 3 Summary & Analysis

Summary
Analysis
Donald Trump announced his candidacy in June 2015, but most politicians and media commentators didn’t take him seriously at first. But the changes in the primary system made it possible for outsiders without any experience to succeed—in fact, more and more outsiders have run since 1972. Although they didn’t win the nomination, figures like Pat Robertson, Pat Buchanan, and Steve Forbes showed that it’s possible for candidates to skip past the invisible primary if they’re rich or famous enough.
In the last chapter, the authors established that Trump’s far-right, anti-democratic political style isn’t unique in American history. Instead, he’s unique because he ran for office in an era when political norms were fraying and the nomination system was ripe for authoritarian takeover. Specifically, party gatekeeping processes weakened enough that Trump’s fame and wealth effectively substituted for political support from the establishment.
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Still, in 2015, Trump initially appeared to face the same long odds as these earlier celebrity outsider candidates. Even after he started leading in the polls, media commentators assumed that party gatekeepers would keep him out of power. But gatekeepers were weaker than ever. After the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision, new money was flooding into politics, giving outsider candidates a better way to fundraise. And as cable news and social media took over from traditional media outlets, especially among Republicans, it got easier for outsiders to win name recognition and support across the country.
Coupled with longer-term changes in the party nomination process, short-term changes in political media and campaign contribution laws also made it easier for Trump to skip the “invisible primary” and win the nomination without any formal support from the establishment. Like the new nomination process, these changes in media and campaign laws allowed nontraditional actors to enter politics. But unlike the new nomination process, these changes didn’t actually make American politics more democratic. Instead, they allowed powerful actors from outside the party establishments to further influence politics in their own favor.
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Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that Republican Party gatekeepers failed to do their job during the invisible primary, the state primaries, and the election.
Gatekeeping isn’t a one-time affair—rather, it’s a constant process of strengthening a party and evaluating threats to it. This means that party leaders have several chances to stop potential authoritarians—but also that they constantly have to look out for threats to democracy.
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First, Trump struggled in the invisible primary: no major Republicans supported him until very late in the race, after he won the second and third primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Even by the end of the primaries, he had a fraction as many endorsements as his major competitors. Ultimately, in 2016, the invisible primary simply didn’t matter: Trump didn’t need the Republican gatekeepers. He was a celebrity, major conservative media figures supported him, and his endless controversies attracted constant news coverage.
While party gatekeepers generally did not support Trump, Levitsky and Ziblatt suggest that they could have taken a stronger stance against him earlier in the race, to help limit his influence. They also point out that, in the 21st century, media and business figures also act as important political gatekeepers (just like the party elite). This can be troubling, because their incentives aren’t necessarily democratic. For instance, the authors point out how the media largely covered Trump because his exaggerated, controversial style made for good television. But this is the same style that made his authoritarian tendencies clear.
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After the Super Tuesday primaries, prominent Republican politicians and magazines started turning against Trump, but they couldn’t do much to stop him. Leaders tried to get delegates to change their vote, but they found little success. In the primary-based convention system, there was no way for Trump to lose. Party leaders no longer had control over the process.
In a previous era, party leaders would have been able to block Trump’s nomination after Super Tuesday. But because of the changes to the nomination process in the last half-century, they couldn’t do it in 2016. They needed to act earlier, but either didn’t appreciate the threat Trump posed to democracy or quietly decided to make a “fateful alliance” with him.
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Finally, during the general election, the Republican establishment and media cautiously suggested that Trump wouldn’t bring his extremism and incivility into office. But actually, it’s often possible to identify anti-democratic politicians before they get power—and Trump fits all the four warning signs of autocracy that Levitsky and Ziblatt laid out in the first chapter.
Levitsky and Ziblatt accuse Republican gatekeepers of normalizing Trump by pretending not to see his authoritarian tendencies after he passed through the “invisible primary.” By returning to the four warning signs from their first chapter, they suggest that these warning signs were crystal clear. They hope this will help readers identify and call out such signs in the future, when party gatekeepers aren’t willing to.
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First, Trump isn’t committed to the rules of democracy. He refused to promise to accept the 2016 election results, and he accused Hillary Clinton supporters of widespread voter fraud without any evidence. No president has questioned American democracy like this since the 1860s, and Trump’s rhetoric led the majority of Republicans to doubt whether the election was fair.
According to Levitsky and Ziblatt, Trump’s disdain for established, fair electoral procedures showed that he doesn’t actually want the U.S. government to follow the will of the people—instead, he wanted it to hand him power, no matter the cost. This is destructive in the long term because it undermines the important democratic norm of public faith in free and fair elections. Given the events surrounding the 2020 election, readers will have to evaluate whether (and to what extent) Trump continues to threaten democracy in the U.S.
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Second, Trump denies his opponents’ legitimacy: he falsely claimed that Barack Obama was not born in the U.S. and called for imprisoning Hillary Clinton.
By denying that Obama and Clinton could legitimately participate in the U.S. political system, Trump undermined the key democratic norm of mutual toleration. He rejected the idea that elections are a legitimate contest for power between different groups, each of which has a right to rule if they are chosen by the public.
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Third, Trump is the first presidential candidate in more than a century to promote violence. At his rallies, he frequently threatened protesters and encouraged his supporters to assault them.
While the violence at Trump’s rallies was relatively small-scale, the authors suggest that it’s troubling because it suggests that Trump is willing to use political violence—potentially on a much larger scale—to get his way and overturn democracy.
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Fourth, Trump supports punishing his opponents and critics. He proposed prosecuting Hillary Clinton for unspecified crimes and threatened to change libel laws and sue the media.
Finally, Trump’s attacks on his critics signal that he is willing to use the legal system as a partisan weapon against his opponents. He rejected the critical democratic principle that the law should apply equally to everyone, regardless of political ideology or affiliation.
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In the general election, Republicans should have done everything possible to keep Trump out of power and preserve democracy—including supporting Hillary Clinton. Endorsing opponents to save democracy isn’t unprecedented: it happened in Austria in 2016 and France in 2017. And some Republican politicians did endorse Clinton—but not any prominent national figures. Of the 78 who did, 77 were retired, and one was about to retire.
While there was little Republicans could do to stop Trump between Super Tuesday and the National Convention, they had the power to stop him in the general election by clearly articulating the risks he posed to U.S. democracy.  However, this required them to sacrifice their own short-term self-interest in order to preserve political stability in the long-term. Clearly, the authors claim, they weren’t invested enough in democracy to do so.
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Quotes
If prominent Republicans had endorsed Clinton, they very well might have swung the election. Unfortunately, they chose to pretend that it was an ordinary election. Because the U.S. electorate was highly polarized and very conflicted about Obama, this ensured that it was going to be a toss-up. If they hadn’t normalized Trump’s candidacy, Republican leaders could have prevented him from winning.
Levitsky and Ziblatt emphasize that it wouldn’t have taken the entire party leadership to delegitimize Trump and swing concerned Republican voters to Clinton. Like in Austria in 2016 and France in 2017, narrow margins would have been enough. The authors introduce the thesis that polarization is partially responsible for the Republicans’ unwillingness to put democracy before party. They elaborate this thesis at length in the book’s final chapters.
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Quotes